Fixed Income

The case for senior loans as we enter 2022

The Case for Senior Loans as We Enter 2022
Key takeaways
Rising rates are on the horizon
1
U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates three to four times this year.
Fixed income investors should consider the risks
2
Rising interest rates can have just as harmful an impact on fixed income portfolios as credit risk.
Senior loans may help
3
Senior loans pay interest based on floating rates, which may be beneficial in a rising rate environment.

Investors today are faced with two significant challenges in fixed income:

  1. How to protect against interest rate risk
  2. Where to find yield

In this piece, we will discuss how senior loans may offer a strong solution to each of these challenges. 

Rising interest rates

When investing in fixed income, investors must consider both credit risk and interest rate risk. Rising interest rates can have just as harmful an impact on fixed income portfolios as credit risk. Investing for income while not losing principal in a rising rate environment can be challenging, but senior loans may help fixed income investors achieve their investment objectives in a wide variety of market conditions. That is especially true in a rising rate environment because of their high relative yields and limited exposure to interest rate risk due to their short duration.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates three to four times this year, starting as early as March. The Invesco Global Senior Loan team believes investors should consider repositioning their fixed income portfolios to better prepare for rising rates. Structurally, senior loans pay interest based on floating rates, so loans have significantly much less duration (or interest rate risk) than many fixed income categories.

Senior loans have performed well during periods of rising rates

Source: Senior loans represented by the the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index (CS LLI) (outsized return in 2008-2009 period was 44%, edited for scale), IG Corporates represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index, U.S. Aggregate represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index, 10 Year Treasury represented by the FTSE 10-Year Treasury Benchmark Index.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made into an index.

High income potential 

Even if the widely expected Fed rate hikes are surprisingly fewer or postponed, we believe the high levels of income typically produced by senior loans should keep them competitive in terms of total return prospects for 2022, relative to other fixed income categories.

The senior loan market, like any other capital market, is subject to a certain amount of price volatility based on investor sentiment, technical factors of supply and demand, and/or valuations. Yet, because senior loans sit atop a company’s capital structure and are secured by the company’s assets, they can be an effective tool for delivering income generation and capital preservation objectives. We believe senior loans should be a core allocation in all fixed income portfolios and, for the reasons cited above, we believe senior loans may be an especially appealing option for 2022.

U.S. senior secured loans have offered one of the best yields in fixed income

Source: Barclays, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, and Bloomberg L.P. as of December 31, 2021. Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond index represents IG corporates, the JPM U.S. HY index represents High Yield and Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index (CS LLI) represents the Leveraged Loans. Loan Yields represented yield to 3 year.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made into an index.

Summary

Senior loans may deliver several compelling characteristics that can make them an attractive long-term core holding in fixed income portfolios in various environments. In today’s market environment, two of those characteristics are particularly relevant:

  • Senior loans can help protect against interest rate risk as they have extremely short duration of approximately 0.25 years on average.
  • Senior loans generally deliver relatively high levels of income/yield compared to other fixed income asset classes.