Above the Noise: Anticipating a new year and a new market environment

It’s the holiday season, so hoop-de-do. My apologies, but if I need to have Andy Williams stuck in my head for a month then so do you. It does feel apropos to have the song on repeat in my mind given the state of the US economy. The merry bells are ringing with inflation coming down rapidly¹ and the economy remaining resilient. This cycle, like all cycles, will end — but that ending isn’t imminent. It appears, at least for now, that the trip down the chimney will be a soft one. My hope is that this will mean goodies for you and me and other investors. 

Brevity isn’t my strong suit, but I’ve promised to keep it short this month. My editors and compliance officers deserve a lighter workload during the holiday season…holiday season, so hoop-de-do and dickory dock. Please make it stop!

How did we do?

At this time last year, I confessed that the FOMO — fear of missing out — that I feel about social situations had made its way into my investing life as well. I had read many of the bearish 2023 outlooks and listened to the recession fears, but personally put a lot of emphasis on the fact that markets have typically performed well in the years after inflation had peaked.² I didn’t want to miss it even if near-term challenges emerged.

Alas, my FOMO confession didn’t score me better invites to New Year’s Eve parties (I was quite happy in my neighbor’s basement), but it did have me on the right side of markets in 2023.

Resolutions are never broken

I am resolved to resume those family meetings that I am always preaching about in my financial literacy presentations. Truth be told, those meetings are too few and too far between in our family. It’s a classic case of “do as I say, not as I do.”

The new year is a great time to gather multiple generations of the family together. Think of it like an earnings call. Affirm the values and purpose of the entity, assess financial situations, consider strategic investments, and ensure that everyone is prepared for what will or could come next. If possible, keep the airing of grievances to a minimum!

It may be confirmation bias but…

…the job market has been cooling at a market-friendly pace and is appeasing the US Federal Reserve. Remember those 12 million unfilled jobs without enough people to fill them?³ The fear was that businesses would feverishly compete to fill them, resulting in a wage-price spiral the likes of which the US hasn’t experienced since the 1970s. The number of open jobs is now coming down, even as the US unemployment rate remains historically low.⁴

The reality is that we were never going to fill each of those jobs. The positions were opened during a period of outsized economic growth that wasn’t sustainable. A moderating jobs market is precisely what the Fed has been hoping to see. 

Since you asked

Here’s a question I’ve been getting lately:

Q: What would it take for you to consider diverting money from US equities and putting it in international equities?

A: For me, it would take the type of environment that we appear to be in now. For one, the US dollar appears to have peaked⁵, which is often the case following the end of monetary policy tightening. And two, leading economic indicators in the developed world appear to have stabilized and are turning upward from a depressed level.⁶ We view those as two important catalysts to potentially unlock some of the value that we see in international markets.

It was said

“What a difference a month can make.” – Randall W. Forsyth, Associate Editor at Barron’s.

November was the biggest one-month rally in the US Treasury market since the early 1980s, not coincidentally the last time the US Federal Reserve worked feverishly to contain inflation.⁷ Nonetheless, there is still $5.9 trillion in money market assets.⁸ I understand. Short-term Treasury yields appear attractive, but they may not be there forever. The moves in the Treasury market in November will hopefully serve as a wake-up call that moving out on the Treasury yield curve can help lock in the yields for a long-term investment horizon.

Automate my job?

Each month I pose a question to ChatGPT — the artificial intelligence-driven chatbot — and assess the response.

Q: What asset classes perform well as the US Treasury yield curve normalizes?

A: As the yield curve normalizes, historically, sectors like financials tend to perform well. Additionally, value stocks may outperform growth stocks in such periods. It’s important to consider a diversified approach based on your risk tolerance and investment goals.

That’s a reasonably good answer — ChatGPT must have picked up on the Bloomberg data showing that, from 1989 to today, S&P 500 financials companies have also tended to outperform S&P 500 technology companies when the yield curve steepened. (It’s learning!). I would add that small-cap stocks have tended to outperform large-cap stocks as the yield curve has normalized.⁹ In the chart below, the higher the dark blue line, the steeper the yield curve (below 0% representing an inverted yield curve). And the higher the light blue area, the greater the small cap outperformance over large caps.

Everyone has a podcast

Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist and Alessio de Longis, Head of Investments for Invesco Investment Solutions, returned to the Greater Possibilities podcast to discuss their outlooks for 2024.

On the road again

I traveled to Philadelphia to celebrate the retirement of a close friend and long-time colleague. If you measure success as the friends you have made and the respect that you have earned, then our retiree was a resounding success. Colleagues came from around the country to raise a glass in his honor. I was overwhelmed by the emotion in the room. That it took place in the city of brotherly (and sisterly) love was not lost on me.

One of our colleagues, Ian Roche, drove from Cleveland to Philadelphia to be at the celebration. That’s 13 hours roundtrip. When I showed my surprise at the lengths he took to be there, he told me that he wouldn’t have missed it for anything. I said, “and that’s why we all love you.” Two weeks later I received the crushing news that Ian had died unexpectedly at the age of 56. I feel like I lost a family member. In many ways I have. We come to work to earn a living. Some even find a calling. The luckiest ones gain a new family. Rest in peace my work brother.

Let’s remember to reflect this holiday season on what matters most. I wish everyone a happy and healthy holiday season. I’ll see you in 2024.