Optimize your portfolios Portfolio Playbook:
Risk-aware growth

In September, resilient growth supported a modest preference for stocks, while cooling risk appetite and persistent uncertainty led to our balanced, defensive approach. Optimize your portfolios with our monthly outlook and allocation guidance.
People walking along Oslo's harbour promenade, Oslo, Norway

Market outlook Focus on upside participation while hedging growth risks

Our macroeconomic framework has continued to point to a slowdown regime, with above-trend global economic growth that’s modestly decelerating.1 While the artificial intelligence (AI) supercycle has remained a powerful growth tailwind that supported resilient corporate earnings,2 geopolitical risks, inflation uncertainty, and evolving central bank policy risks remain elevated. This reinforces our emphasis on diversification and risk management. We’re seeking to preserve upside participation while hedging growth risks through a balanced, risk-neutral approach. We’re still moderately overweight stocks over fixed income.

Within stocks, we’re maintaining an overweight to defensive factors such as quality and low volatility. In sectors, we favor those with defensive characteristics and durable fundamentals, including select areas within information technology, health care, and consumer staples, at the expense of more cyclical areas. From a regional perspective, we continue to maintain a moderate preference for the US over developed ex-US markets, and developed relative to emerging markets.

Within bonds, we maintain a moderate underweight to overall credit risk and exposure to interest rate duration to help manage risk and hedge downside growth risks, with a preference for nominal bonds

Business cycle

test
  • Recession doesn’t appear imminent
  • Credit spreads remain historically tight

Risk profile

test
  • Risk appetite has cooled
  • Leading economic indicators point to resilience

Policy implications

test
  • Inflation reaccelerating
  • Policy outlook less clear

Business cycle

test
  • Resilient growth
  • Improving productivity

Risk profile

test
  • Leading economic indicators accelerate
  • Market-based indicators improve

Policy implications

test
  • Inflation expectations moderate
  • Federal Reserve returns to easing mode

Business cycle

test
  • Deteriorating activity
  • Widening credit spreads
  • Tightening lending conditions

Risk profile

test
  • Deteriorating leading economic indicators
  • Flight to quality 

Policy implications

test
  • Shift towards easier policy

Asset allocations to consider Diversified with a modest tilt toward stocks over bonds

A challenge for tactical investors is preparing for the expected and anticipating the unexpected. The tactical asset allocation (TAA) framework from the Invesco Solutions team is designed to enhance a long-term strategic asset allocation (SAA) by making portfolio tilts based on near-term market views.


We’ve also provided alternative asset allocations should market conditions change. Institutional investors seeking to implement these allocations can subscribe to the dynamic model portfolios for regular portfolio updates. The tactical, dynamic factor rotation shown below is also utilized in the Invesco Russell 1000® Dynamic Multifactor ETF (OMFL).



  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.



  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.



  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.

Looking for a product?

  • 1

    Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Macrobond, Invesco Solutions and Custom Strategies research and calculations. Proprietary Leading Economic Indicators of Invesco Solutions and Custom Strategies. Macro regime data as of Aug. 31, 2026. The Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs) are proprietary, forward-looking measures of the level of economic growth. The Global Risk Appetite Cycle Indicator (GRACI) is a proprietary measure of the markets’ risk sentiment.

  • 2

    Source: Bloomberg L.P., June 2026, based on the 45% advance in operating earnings of companies in the S&P 500 Index in Q2-2026.