Enhance portfolio diversification with private credit

We help investors capture portfolio diversification and risk-adjusted return potential with dynamic private credit exposure.

Resilient returns beyond economic tides

Private Credit is seen as a robust option for a diversified portfolio regardless of the economic environment. Whether it’s an inflationary environment or disinflationary, the asset class offers little to no interest rate duration risk given its floating-rate structure. It offers a stable and high level of income, as corporate loans generally offer income potential above that of traditional fixed income, with incremental risk.

Allocation across private credit based on market environment

Source: Invesco

More 2024 Insights

Bank loans: coupon levels are near all-time highs

We believe 2024 will be another strong year for loan returns. Coupon levels are near all-time highs and will remain at these levels until central banks pivot aggressively towards lowering rates. While an aggressive easing cycle is possible based on historical experience, it is not our base case. Furthermore, even if this environment were to materialise, it would not materially diminish loan coupons until late 2024. 

“Senior secured” status: attractive in times of turmoil

Footnotes

  • Source: JP Morgan Leveraged Loan Index data. Based on in-depth analysis conducted in January 2023. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

    Source: J P Morgan as of May 2023.

Direct lending: historically attractive yields with conservative structuring

Direct lending refers to directly originating senior secured floating rate loans to middle market companies without an intermediary investment bank. Because these are smaller transactions, direct lending loans tend to be buy-and-hold assets and less liquid relative to broadly syndicated bank loans. For this lower level of liquidity, direct lending loans have historically offered a generous 200-300 basis points of additional yield potential. Additionally, direct lending loans tend to be less impacted by public market volatility.

Outlook: markets are now offering better visibility

Having reflected on the events in the first half of the year, let’s now look forward to what we can expect in the months to come.

Distressed credit: several tailwinds point towards an enhanced small cap distressed opportunity set

Small companies often run into problems, regardless of economic conditions. This is one of the main reasons that we focus on them in our distressed credit and special situations portfolios. It creates an evergreen opportunity set and allows us exposure to companies across a diverse range of industry sectors.

Sizing the opportunity: how big is our investment universe?

We are already seeing the effects of today’s challenging market environment in our investment pipeline, and we expect a far larger opportunity set than we saw in 2008 and 2009.

Over the last 15 years or so, non-investment grade credit markets have increased meaningfully in size to approximately $6 trillion. That’s two to three times larger than they were going into the Global Financial Crisis (Figure 1).

Much of this growth has taken place within our small cap universe as noted by the significant percentage of total loan issuance sized under $750 million (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Growth of the Global Leveraged Loan, High Yield and Direct Lending Markets
f1

Sources: Credit Suisse and KRB DLD research, as of December 31, 2023

Loans Sized under $750M as Percentage of Total Issuance

As of December 31, 2023. Sources: 1) Credit Suisse and KRB DLD research, as of June 30, 2023. 2) JPM research, as of October 15, 2023. Split-B rated refers to possessing a B-/B/B+ rating or equivalent from one NRSRO, and a below B- rating or equivalent from another NRSRO. Includes not rated loans. 3) S&P LCD. 4) Citi research, as November 30, 2023.

Explore private credit insights

Elevate your private credit strategy with Invesco

At Invesco, Private Credit encompasses senior secured corporate lending to a range of companies, including smaller capitalised middle market issuers and larger issuers that utilise loans as part of a broader capital structure. Our private credit expertise spans across different disciplines, including:

Invesco Private Credit platform

$41+ billion

Assets under management

30+ years

History managing senior loans

100+

Dedicated employees across four offices

200+

PE firms with investments financed by our credit funds

2,000+

Unique companies in proprietary credit library

As of 31 December 2023

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