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Markets and Economy
Above the Noise: Countdown to a rate cut
The economic data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve rate cut soon. What I don’t expect to see soon is a recession.
The top holdings in the S&P 500® Index have been generating a sizeable portion of the market’s gains. This narrow leadership casts doubts on the durability and strength of the market’s rebound. But on the bright side, this narrow market looks quite different than the stock market bubble of 1999. So where do we go from here? Market participation has tended to broaden as economies recover from weak environments.
Get my analysis in my chartbook: What the narrow market means.
Above the Noise: Countdown to a rate cut
The economic data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve rate cut soon. What I don’t expect to see soon is a recession.
What Biden’s historic election decision means for markets
Nominating a new Democratic presidential candidate this late in the race creates additional uncertainty in the markets.
Could the Fed cut interest rates twice in 2024?
Recent data shows greater disinflationary progress in the US, which I believe will lead to a Federal Reserve rate cut this quarter, and I see room for more than one rate cut in 2024.
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The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of March 14, 2025. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations
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