Midyear Global Public Policy Outlook

As we assess the public policy landscape at midyear, the 2024 US presidential election casts an increasingly large shadow over almost every issue — from the fate of US aid to Israel and Ukraine to the implementation of clean energy and climate initiatives. A rematch between presumptive nominees Joe Biden and Donald Trump (we can drop the “presumptive” after this summer’s party conventions) promises to come down to the wire — likely to be decided by less than 10% of voters in just six swing states.

But the US election is hardly the only contest to watch.

• Europe. Election of the European Commission president and the appointment of 26 commissioners will take place this year, along with the development of the EU’s policy agenda for 2024-2029. Incumbent President Ursula Von der Leyen appears to be in a strong position for re-election.
• United Kingdom. In the UK, the next general election will be held on July 4. We expect the Labour Party to win that election due to public disillusion with the current government and a desire for change.
• Asia Pacific. Elections were a key story in the first half across the region, with contests taking place in Taiwan, Indonesia, Korea, and India. And now the world watches as Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida seeks re-election as his party’s leader in the autumn, despite political challenges and plummeting poll ratings over a corruption scandal.

On the geopolitical front, it is interesting to note the continued commitment to Ukraine in both the US and Europe. Despite the long delay and political tussling needed to achieve the next tranche of funding from the US – $60 billion – it nevertheless got done. Likewise, in Europe, there seems to be even more resolve to continue the effort to support Ukraine than in the US. Also of note is the fact that both the US and Europe acted to use sanctioned Russian assets to help fund efforts in Ukraine. Going forward, however, it seems like Ukraine will need to show some progress on the battlefield to maintain this level of support from the West, especially support from the US.

In our Midyear Global Public Policy Outlook, we share our views on each region’s political contests, fiscal initiatives, geopolitical issues, and regulations in the areas of defense and security, financial stability, and energy and sustainability. What does the landscape look like now, and what could change as voters take to the polls to determine winners and losers?