As we assess the public policy landscape at midyear, the 2024 US presidential election casts an increasingly large shadow over almost every issue — from the fate of US aid to Israel and Ukraine to the implementation of clean energy and climate initiatives. A rematch between presumptive nominees Joe Biden and Donald Trump (we can drop the “presumptive” after this summer’s party conventions) promises to come down to the wire — likely to be decided by less than 10% of voters in just six swing states.
But the US election is hardly the only contest to watch.
On the geopolitical front, it is interesting to note the continued commitment to Ukraine in both the US and Europe. Despite the long delay and political tussling needed to achieve the next tranche of funding from the US – $60 billion – it nevertheless got done. Likewise, in Europe, there seems to be even more resolve to continue the effort to support Ukraine than in the US. Also of note is the fact that both the US and Europe acted to use sanctioned Russian assets to help fund efforts in Ukraine. Going forward, however, it seems like Ukraine will need to show some progress on the battlefield to maintain this level of support from the West, especially support from the US.
In our Midyear Global Public Policy Outlook, we share our views on each region’s political contests, fiscal initiatives, geopolitical issues, and regulations in the areas of defense and security, financial stability, and energy and sustainability. What does the landscape look like now, and what could change as voters take to the polls to determine winners and losers?
Based on his campaign pledges, here are some things we’ll be watching for from President-elect Donald Trump and what they may mean for the economy and markets.
We assess the key differences between the policy platforms of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and the potential implications for financial markets.
The first, and maybe only, debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is over. Did it move the needle with voters? And what comes next in the dwindling weeks of the campaign?
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All data from Invesco unless otherwise noted.
The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of June 24, 2024. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.
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