
Markets and Economy Above the Noise: Will policy uncertainty harm the US economy?
While the setup for markets was good coming into 2025, they’ve struggled as investors assess ongoing changes to the US policy approach.
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While the setup for markets was good coming into 2025, they’ve struggled as investors assess ongoing changes to the US policy approach.
A Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) tells economists and investors whether the manufacturing and services sectors are contracting or expanding.
There are signs of softening global growth prospects and rising economic policy uncertainty, plus a tectonic shift in fiscal stimulus around the globe.
I’m hoping not to find signs of a wilting economy, but recessions have historically been caused by policy mistakes, so it’s important to be vigilant.
A recession is a meaningful and lasting decline in economic activity that could include lower GDP, employment, and spending.
Recent history has shown that protectionist measures can hurt short-term economic growth but may not create a long-term hurdle for markets.
European nations prepare to invest in defense and infrastructure, while the US faces the possibility of recession brought on by government spending cuts.
The market is gauging the economic inefficiencies that may result from the Trump administration’s new tariffs and the retaliatory measures from other countries.
The US economy appears to be slowing quickly as consumers brace for tariffs, higher prices, and a possible government shutdown.
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