Election 2024: Both parties defend narrow majorities in Congress

As the nation barrels toward the 2024 presidential election, it’s looking more and more as if Election Day will be Groundhog Day, featuring a 2020 rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. At the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, the House and Senate continue to wrestle with funding the government as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) navigates his new role and attempts to unite and lead a slim Republican majority. On the other side of the Capitol, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is facing his own challenges of a narrow majority and uncertain legislative prospective “wins.” His counterpart, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), faces very different odds. His political and policy agenda are — once more — calibrated to the former president’s renewed ascendancy as more and more Senate Republicans jump on the Trump train. 

Is a third-party presidential candidate a viable option?

As a Biden versus Trump rematch looks more and more certain, there’s growing chatter of a third option — a mythological unicorn ticket that would offer a more appealing alternative. Most of the attention has focused on the efforts of the No Labels movement to recruit a candidate for president and vice president to offer the country a fresher option this November. No Labels espouses a belief that the country is tired of the bickering and divisiveness that has entrenched both the Democratic and Republican Parties and needs a unifying figure who’s focused on solutions for America and is free from partisan baggage.

But is a third-party option viable? The country’s last real third-party foray into a presidential race was businessman Ross Perot’s 1992 presidential run, which saw him secure 18.9% of the popular vote. Any Democratic or Republican alternative option could play a spoiler role come November, which has both political parties at unease. That said, a third-party option, whether it be No Labels or some yet-to-be-determined alternative, will be an uphill climb logistically, financially, and politically. Despite these hurdles, as long as Biden and Trump remain unfavorable to large portions of the electorate, pundits will debate the viability of alternative presidential options like Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), former Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT), and possible Libertarian candidate Bobby Kennedy, Jr. 

Challenging cycle for the Senate

Election season is also a hot topic in the Senate as Democrats look to protect their slim majority while confronting a challenging cycle and political map. This year features 33 in-cycle races, with Democrats defending 20 seats, Republicans 10, and three independents, who caucus with Democrats, also up for reelection. In addition, Nebraska and California will hold special elections to fulfill terms of retired Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) and deceased Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), respectively.

Battleground states Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada will feature spirited Senate elections, and those outcomes will heavily dictate who controls the upper chamber come January 2025. Although not a presidential battleground state, Montana will play a sizeable role in determining who controls the Senate as Senator John Tester (D-MT) seeks another term in deep red and Trump-friendly Montana. 

Battle for control of the House

Regarding future control of the House of Representatives, Democrats continue to feel bullish on their prospects of recapturing the majority despite Biden’s sagging political popularity. That optimism is cemented in the need for Democrats to only flip only a few seats to win the majority and the fact that Republicans are defending 18 seats that Biden won in 2020. Democrats are hoping voters will feel positive about the strengthening economy, will believe in Biden’s policy and vision, and will remain steadfast in their animosity toward Trump.

On the other hand, Republicans believe they can maintain their majority based on Biden’s unpopularity with key voting demographics and voters’ unease with the state of the economy. Interestingly, the fate of who controls the House could be dictated by the unpopularity of each political party’s presidential nominee. Additionally, court challenges have scrambled several states’ congressional districts (Alabama and Louisiana to name a few) and could influence the power structure come 2025. 

Onslaught of retirements to complicate matters

And on top of everything else, Congress is also managing an onslaught of retirements. As of January 18, 46 members of Congress have announced their intent to not seek reelection. Seven senators and 39 House members (22 Democrats and 17 Republicans) announced they’ll retire at the end of the 118th Congress. Passing legislation is never easy, and the distraction of members plotting their post-congressional lives complicates matters in both the House and Senate. Speaker Johnson has a very slim majority in the House, and every retirement announcement makes life that much harder for Republicans to manage daily affairs and defend their slim majority in the fall.

Despite these obstacles, Congress must pass or extend a Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization and a farm bill and address the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) during the next several months. Not to mention, there are challenges presented by a new budget and appropriations cycle as the current one has yet to be resolved. How and when these legislative demands will be met remain big questions, but with legislative eyes starting to get distracted by the big presidential prize, everything in Washington will get more complicated for all parties involved.