2024 Global Policy Outlook

As we look to 2024, we must first recognize the profound impact that the events of 2023 will have on our outlook for the year ahead. As they say, “The past is prologue.” But even more fundamentally, events from the previous year serve as the framework that gives shape to the year to come. We saw this clearly in 2022 when the advent of both the war in Ukraine and persistent inflation shaped much of the geopolitical and economic conversation in 2023. Today, global economic and political uncertainty promises to play a prominent role in 2024 as the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates, the US and China settle into their new “competitive cooperation,” and the war in Ukraine drags on. 

These questions are top-of-mind as 2024 comes into view 

• The Middle East. Will the US be able to continue to walk the tightrope of firmly aligning itself with Israel and its right to defend itself by attacking Hamas while also acting as a restraint on how Israel conducts its attacks to minimize Palestinian casualties and prevent a wider war? 
• Elections. · As the economy appears to be slowing down, how might this impact elections in the US, UK, and elsewhere? What are the key factors to watch to see if the expected rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden materializes? 
• Ukraine. Can Biden keep the US commitment to Ukraine on track, or will the US support for Ukraine go off the rails even before a potential Trump return to the White House? Does Europe’s decision to begin accession talks with Ukraine mean their resolve in the conflict remains strong? 
• US-China relations. Will the US and China turn their improved dialogue into concrete cooperation, or are the local politics of each country too opposed to allow this? Will elections in Taiwan temper or exacerbate the situation? Where does the rest of the world line up in the tech/artificial intelligence (AI) “competition” between China and the US?

While no one can answer all of these questions right now with total certainty, we have clues on the direction of travel for some of them and will keep you updated as more data informs us. 

For now, we endeavor to provide you with a framework for thinking about 2024. We explore potential political changes across multiple regions, provide fiscal and geopolitical outlooks, and dive a little bit deeper into policy and regulatory developments in AI, fund liquidity and ESG. While there are some common themes across regions, there are also areas of great divergence, and as we know, such divergence can create room for both opportunity and risk.

Explore our detailed policy outlooks for the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and Asia Pacific.