European equities: Preparing for a new normal in interest rates and value investing
As interest rates normalise, the balance between growth and value stocks shifts, creating new opportunities for fundamentals-focused investors. Learn more.
Our team manages more than USD $9bn+ of assets under management (AUM).
On average, our team members have 9+ years at Invesco and 19 years+ in the industry.
400 company meetings yearly, with around 50 of these with companies we don’t own.
Europe has been a region of very low growth for a long time but today we are seeing the macroeconomic data turn a corner, certainly relative to the US.
In the long-term, we believe that inflation will remain at moderate levels supported by energy pricing, wages and investment and so we expect interest rates to normalise to levels consistent with the era pre-GFC. This should be highly supportive for fundamental, stock-pickers like us.
We believe that the market struggles to value companies undergoing change. Based on this, we actively seek valuation anomalies in the European stock market where there is the ability and willingness for positive change ahead. We call this approach ‘Quality Transition’; investing in positive change.
Our investment process requires rigorous fundamental analysis, discipline and patience, plus we have close relationships with the underlying companies. Historically, this approach has generated superior alpha-driven returns.
Discover how we find value in mispriced opportunities.
European equities: Preparing for a new normal in interest rates and value investing
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Europe offers a diverse, rich and complex equity market. With different cultures, political systems and economic profiles, it presents some compelling investment opportunities for active stock pickers.
Furthermore, we believe European equities are attractively valued on both an historic and regional basis and expectations are extremely low. This combination can lead to significant positive share price performance when news flow or data points surprise to the upside, even if only marginally so.
Europe has been a region of very low growth for a long time and as a result many investors overlook the opportunities here. Yet today we are seeing the macroeconomic data turn a corner, both in absolute terms but also relative to the US Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs), (a widely used economic indicator to assess a country’s health in manufacturing or services sectors). This appears to have bottomed.
As PMI Services data is improving, inventory levels are low, while de-stocking is seemingly at an end. Although inflation is coming down, real wage growth is good, leading to stronger consumer spending.
The credit cycle appears to be improving with demand increasing, too, and there’s a general acceptance that interest rates will normalise, which should further stimulate investment. The recovery may not be quick, more ‘U’ than ‘V’ shaped, but a soft landing appears to be likely and yet European share price valuations do not reflect this. Here is the opportunity.
This moderate monetary backdrop does not favour any one particular investment style bias over another, but instead should be highly supportive for fundamental, stock-picking.
Investing in European equities via actively managed funds allows investors to take full advantage of the breadth of opportunity and diversity across the region. We offer a broad range of actively managed funds which strive to do this.
Fundamental research involves analysing data which is expected to impact the price or perceived value of a stock. Some stock fundamentals include the profitability of a business, the cash flow, return on assets, and the level of indebtedness of a company.
The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange-rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Data is as at 30/06/2024 and sourced from Invesco unless otherwise stated.
This is marketing material and not financial advice. It is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication.
Views and opinions are based on current market conditions and are subject to change.
For the most up to date information on our ICVC funds, please refer to the relevant fund and share class-specific Key Investor Information Documents, the Supplementary Information Document, the financial reports and the Prospectus, which are available using the contact details shown.
For information on our SICAV funds and the relevant risks, refer to the Key Information Documents/Key Investor Information Documents (local languages) and Prospectus (English, French, German, Spanish, Italian), and the financial reports, available from www.invesco.eu. A summary of investor rights is available in English from www.invescomanagementcompany.lu. The management company may terminate marketing arrangements.
EMEA 3758982/2024