A presidential candidate convicted on 34 charges. An assassination attempt that left a former president bloodied but defiant. And a sitting president who pulled out of his reelection race after a disastrous debate performance. Any one of these events could have easily been the defining moment of an election. But in 2024, all that — and more — happened in the span of just 52 days.
Voters, party leaders, and down-ballot candidates have had to quickly shift gears from a Trump-Biden rematch to a Trump-Harris showdown. What are polls telling us about the new shape of the race? We highlight some early data from the key battleground states, but as we’ve so clearly seen over the past several weeks, things can change in the blink of an eye.
Read our latest Washington Newsletter.
Revisit 2024 themes in “12 months of Above the Noise.” A resilient US economy, contained inflation, and an easing Federal Reserve created a positive backdrop for markets.
The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut today wasn’t a surprise, but its new expectation to cut by 50 basis points next year (rather than 100) was.
A growing trend toward fiscal conservatism, the continued importance of monetary policy, increasing geopolitical risks, and technological innovation could drive global markets in the new year.
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The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of August 14, 2024. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.
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