Nothing is ever certain in investing. There are some investment principles, though, that tend to hold true in many environments. For example, if you want higher returns, the trade-off is usually accepting more risk and volatility.
Another important investment principle is the concept of diversification. We’ve all heard the adage of not putting all your eggs in one basket.
But how can we really know that diversification is actually powerful? And how can it help individual investors in today’s markets?
While diversification may help smooth a portfolio’s fluctuations, it does not eliminate risk. In other words, diversification may not protect you from a loss when markets are falling.
At the portfolio level, diversification is based on owning a mix of asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and alternative investments like private credit and commodities. This article will focus specifically on diversification in stocks, or equities.
Overall, we think it’s helpful for investors to think about diversification in equities on three different levels:
- Stock concentration
- Sectors
- Themes
Rising stock concentration
When it comes to diversification, stock concentration is the elephant in the room. We’re talking about the Magnificent 71, of course.
In recent years, a handful of mega-cap companies have dominated index performance, significantly influencing overall returns. For example, the S&P 500® Index has nearly 39% in its top 10 constituents.2 Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq-100® Index, has about 53% in its top 10 holdings.3
Yet these indexes are simply doing their job because their methodologies weight individual stocks by size, as measured by market capitalization.
One reason leading stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.com are massive is because they’re so entrenched in our everyday lives. Their positioning could potentially be attributed to their profit margins and cash flows, relative to their competitors.4 Therefore, it could be argued that the recent dominance of the market’s largest stocks is justified by their strong fundamentals and investor confidence in their prospects.
A key takeaway is to remember that some popular market benchmarks are currently top-heavy by historical standards, so they may not be as diversified as investors assume.5 Also, like many other factors in the market, concentration levels tend to vary over time. For example, there was an extended period during the 1950s and 1960s when the market was similarly concentrated in the top 10 stocks like today.6
Tech leadership
Another topic that’s been top of mind for many investors in recent years is the strength of Technology stocks, leading some to question the wisdom of diversifying into other sectors.
In fact, since 2017, Technology has been the top-performing U.S. sector in half of the years (four out of eight years). But notice what happened in the other four years: Energy dominated twice, while Health Care and Telecommunications each led once. No sector has maintained permanent leadership.