Tactical Asset Allocation

November 2025 update

Our framework moves to a recovery regime, driven by improving growth expectations. We increased portfolio risk with a moderate overweight in stocks versus fixed income, favoring value and small- and mid-caps. We’re moderately increasing credit risk and reducing duration back to neutral. We’re maintaining our underweight to the US dollar.

Get the full story

See what our macro regime framework is telling us — and what we’re doing in response — in our November 2025 Tactical Asset Allocation update.

Topics include:

• Macro update —  Following 16 consecutive months in a contraction regime of below-trend and decelerating growth, our macro framework moves to a recovery regime, driven by the steady rise in market-implied growth expectations.
• Markets — Markets are pricing in a goldilocks scenario where the Federal Reserve may be able to sustain a low but improving growth environment without inflationary pressures.
• Investment positioning — See what we’re favoring in stock, bond, and currency markets.