Given our view that 2022 will be a year of transition and that asset class returns will converge, we adopt a more balanced approach within our Model Asset Allocation, though still maintain a preference for cyclical assets. We reduce the equity allocation to Neutral and increase the allocation to bonds, by raising high-yield credit (to Maximum) and investment-grade credit (to just below Neutral), though we reduce government bonds to the Minimum allowed. From a regional perspective we have added to emerging market (EM) and Eurozone allocations, while reducing exposure to the US and Japan. We also consider alternative scenarios.
Model asset allocation
In our view:
- Equities offer limited potential as the global economy slows. We reduce to Neutral.
- Real estate (REITS) has the potential to produce the best returns. We stay at Maximum.
- Corporate high-yield (HY) is now more attractive (relative to equities). We increase to Maximum.
- Corporate investment-grade (IG) yields have increased. We increase to Neutral.
- Government debt outlook is poor. We reduce to Minimum.
- Cash returns are low but stable and de-correlated (it is our diversifier of choice). We stay at Maximum.
- Commodities are supported by the cycle but some are expensive. We reduce to Zero.
- Gold is threatened by rising yields and a stronger USD. We remain at zero.
- Regionally, we favour the UK and EM (and are Underweight US assets)
Our best-in-class assets (based on 12m projected returns)
- UK equities
- EM real estate
- EM IG
- USD cash