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Global Fixed Income Strategy Monthly Report

11 April 2024
Invesco
2022 in review paul jackson

In our regularly updated macroeconomic analysis, we offer an outlook for interest rates and currencies – and look at which fixed income assets are favoured across a range of market environments. 

Global Fixed Income Strategy Monthly Report

In this edition:

  • Macro: This year’s big surprise has been the resilience of global growth. We believe a global soft landing would be supportive of emerging markets (EM), in our view. We discuss the outlook for EM macro this year and the impact of two risk factors: US Federal Reserve policy and China.
  • Credit: With yields at historical highs and most central banks at the end of their hiking cycles, it’s not surprising that fixed income has garnered so much attention. But, amid tight valuations, we see one opportunity that stands out: US agency mortgage-backed securities.
  • Interest rate outlook
    We’re positive on European interest rates over the medium term. Yields have moved higher this year and present a buying opportunity, in our view. We believe tighter financial conditions and subdued growth will lead to European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts starting in June. We maintain our Overweight allocation in the UK as recent data increases the chance of the Bank of England (BoE) cutting interest rates as soon as the June meeting.
  • Currency outlook
    We have a negative view on the euro over the medium term, based on our expectation of a more active ECB rate cutting cycle than the market anticipates. We remain neutral on the pound. It has been one of the best performing developed market currencies year-to-date, thanks largely to improved risk sentiment and domestic economic data.
  • A Q&A with our IFI Europe team
    We sat down with Stuart Edwards and Mark McDonnell, who talked to us about the macro themes driving their multi-sector asset allocation decisions.
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Catch up on the last few editions:

FAQs

Whether you’re looking for income, diversification, capital preservation or total returns, our global fixed income teams have the strategies, the scale and the flexibility needed to match your objectives as markets evolve.

We have more than 200 fixed income specialists who invest across regions, investment styles and capital structures. Their expertise spans the entire fixed income spectrum, covering credit, rates and currencies.

  • $313.72 billion in fixed income assets under management
  • 45+ years investing in fixed income markets

Source: Invesco as of 31 December 2022.

Fixed income investments can offer several important benefits to investors:

  • Diversification: Adding fixed income securities to a portfolio can help diversify it and reduce its overall risk, as bonds typically behave differently to other investment instruments like equities.
  • Risk reduction: Fixed income investments are deemed less risky than stocks, as the issuer is contractually obliged to meet the income payments and repay the principal sum on the redemption date. In the event of bankruptcy, fixed income instruments also sit higher up the capital structure than equities. This means that the issuer will meet its debt obligations before looking after its shareholders.    
  • Liquidity: Many fixed income securities are highly liquid and can be easily bought and sold in the market.

While fixed income securities are deemed less risky than equities, there are still some key things to look out for:

  • Interest rate risk: When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. This is because, in the new higher rate environment, new bonds will be issued on more attractive terms. As such, investors looking to sell their existing bonds will need to do so at a discount in order to compete.
  • Inflation risk: When investors buy a bond, they commit to tying their money up for a set period of time. If inflation is high or rises during the lifetime of the loan, its value will be eroded and their money will have less purchasing power when it is repaid on the redemption date. Inflation also erodes the purchasing power of the income earned.
  • Credit risk: When you invest in a business or government, there is always a risk that they will go bankrupt and fail to repay the loan. Furthermore, if they run into difficulties, they may struggle to meet interest payments and default on their obligations. Fixed income investors should carry out thorough credit analysis before buying a bond to make sure the issuer is financially sound.
  • Market risk: If an investor is unable to hold a bond until maturity and needs to sell it on the secondary market, price fluctuations resulting from the overall performance of financial markets could lead to losses.
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Investment risks

  • The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested. 

Important information

  • This is marketing material and not financial advice. It is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. Views and opinions are based on current market conditions and are subject to change.

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