We have witnessed a dramatic repricing of risk in the first few months of 2025. Following the “Liberation Day” tariffs, US equity markets have posted their 16th worst two-day period since 1928.
The once unstoppable US large cap equity market has underperformed its global counterparts since Trump’s election on November 4, 2024, with a rotation into non-US equities and “risk-off” assets underway.
Being defensive and flexible is key for investors due to volatile trade policies. Risks in US equity markets, such as high valuations and market concentration are being highlighted.
Invesco Solutions develops capital market assumptions (CMAs) that provide long-term estimates for the behaviour of major asset classes globally.
The assumptions, which are based on a 10-year investment time horizon, are intended to guide strategic asset allocations. For each selected asset class, we develop assumptions for expected return, standard deviation of return (volatility) and correlation with other asset classes.
Paul Jackson, Global Head of Asset Allocation Research for EMEA, discusses his insights on portfolio allocations and strategies for the Q2 2025 outlook.
Alternative Opportunities is a quarterly report from Invesco Solutions. In each new edition, we look at the outlook for private market assets.
We share our scenario analysis to help clients navigate an uncertain landscape. Our base case is that inflation has peaked – in which case we favour high yield credit and emerging market assets. Should inflation prove more persistent, with a deeper recession on the cards, then cash and government bonds are the order of the day. Read on for details – and for why we favour investment grade credit in both scenarios.
The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Where individuals or the business have expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice.
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