Alternative Opportunities is a quarterly report from Invesco Solutions. In each new edition, we look at the outlook for private market assets. In particular, we focus on private credit, private equity, real estate, infrastructure and commodities.
We remain neutral on how we’re allocating risk within our alternatives portfolio due to elevated downside growth risks, high equity valuations, and benign capital markets activity. In general, we’re more defensive, favouring private debt and hedged strategies versus private equity.
While we may see some compression in direct lending spreads and original issue discounts (OID), we still believe that all-in yields will remain attractive relative to liquid credit strategies.
Real asset and alternative credit yields continue to remain elevated relative to their long-term averages.
Dry powder continues to sit idle as public market valuations remain high, and “take-private” transactions are at record low levels. Lower interest rates and tighter spreads will likely improve the leveraged buyout (LBO) outlook as the thawing of the exit market will be a welcome shift for PE managers and investors.
Within commercial real estate, a trough in valuations and stabilisation of cap rates at tight levels have driven confidence that the start of a new transaction cycle is close at hand. Despite elevated valuations and record levels of dry powder in infrastructure, an easing of policy may provide a runway for investors to deploy capital.
Spreads within event-driven strategies remain high despite limited capital market activity from mergers and acquisitions as private equity remains sidelined.
Trend-following strategies have historically benefited from a tailwind during periods of high and declining rates.
A broad range of investments fall into the ‘alternatives’ asset class, including real estate, private credit, private equity, infrastructure and hedge funds. The asset class is growing, as investors continue to turn to alternatives for diversification and to navigate challenging market conditions.
Alternative assets often behave differently to public market assets like equities and bonds. Their unique characteristics mean that they can help investors achieve a diversified portfolio. Typically, they also generate higher returns than public market assets.
We share some highlights below:
Our experts unpack the 2025 market outlook on the evolving private credit market. We explore the implications of recent trends on bank loans, distressed credit and direct lending.
Charles Moussier, Head of EMEA Insurance Client Solutions shares his views on the outlook and opportunities for Insurance clients, including why the Insurance team are underweight equities relative to fixed income and may see opportunities for insurers in private credit.
The value of investments and any income will fluctuate. This may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations. Investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Alternative investment products may involve a higher degree of risk, may engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss, can be highly illiquid, may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information, are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual portfolios, often charge higher fees which may offset any trading profits, and in many cases the underlying investments are not transparent and are known only to the investment manager. There is often no secondary market for private equity interests, and none is expected to develop. There may be restrictions on transferring interests in such investments.
All data is provided in USD and as of 19 September 2024 sourced from Invesco unless otherwise stated.
This is marketing material and not financial advice. It is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication.
Views and opinions are based on current market conditions and are subject to change.
Israel: This document may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose, nor be furnished to any other person other than those to whom copies have been sent. Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice or investment marketing as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 1995 (“Investment Advice Law”). Neither Invesco Ltd. nor its subsidiaries are licensed under the Investment Advice Law, nor does it carry the insurance as required of a licensee thereunder.
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All data as of January 31, 2023, unless otherwise stated.
This document is marketing material and is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities.
Where individuals or the business have expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals, they are subject to change without notice and are not to be construed as investment advice.
