US presidential election 2024

Navigating the 2024 US election

2024 is an election year in the US, and ritual obliges that we offer our views on the global economy and global financial markets based on the potential outcomes.

Admittedly, we believe that investors often overstate the impact that the federal government has on broad financial markets. In fact, monetary policy is likely to have greater influence on markets in the next few years than any forthcoming legislation or executive action. Our approach therefore is to focus on the nuance. 

If enacted, the different agendas of Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump may have a distinct impact on select sectors and industries, as well as regions, currencies, and commodities. However, as we illustrate, some of those market impacts may be counterintuitive. In the following pages, we identify the big issues driving this election, assess the primary differences between each candidate’s policy platform, and highlight the potential implications for the financial markets. 

For simplicity’s sake, these implications assume that the White House and Congress will be led by the same party. On page 19, we consider what has historically been accomplished in a split government and share the potential legislation that could be passed and/or executive actions that could be taken in a divided government. 

We look forward to this exercise every four years but also recognize that there are a wide range of potential outcomes, not only at the ballot box but also in how the candidates will govern. Ultimately, policy making is about setting priorities. No administration gets everything they want, nor do markets necessarily respond to the political initiatives in the “obvious” way. Nonetheless, very interesting investment views and themes emerged as we pored over the platforms.