European Parliament election 2024: Outcome and impact

Summary and key points

The politics…

As anticipated, the political gravity in the European Parliament has shifted to the right, at the expense of centrist liberals and the left-leaning Greens

Nevertheless, a pro-EU coalition comprising traditional centre-left and centre-right political groups is expected to remain the driving force behind the European Parliament's policymaking process.

However, it is now feasible – for the first time in the history of the European Parliament – that a slim, right-of-centre voting majority could be established, though coordination of such a coalition would be rare and fraught with political challenges.

As such, rather than in Brussels, the biggest impact of the election has been felt in France where President Macron called a snap parliamentary election following the heavy defeat of his centrist coalition by the far-right Rassemblement National.

The policy…

While the full impact of the European Parliament election on the EU’s policy agenda can only be truly assessed once the political layer of the European Commission has been formed later this year, it is possible to draw some initial policy conclusions, including in the areas of:

• Climate and sustainability policy: The ambitions of the European Green Deal are expected to be reframed. Though net-zero targets will likely remain in place, it is anticipated that there will be a greater focus on ensuring energy security and rebalancing industrial competitiveness vis-à-vis jurisdictions such as the US and China.
• Defence and security policy: Building on recent progress towards strengthening the EU’s defence industrial base, there is now more support in Brussels for developing common capabilities, such as an EU air defence system as championed by Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, and supported by President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

Reminder: Role of the European Parliament

The European Parliament is a directly-elected EU body with legislative, supervisory, and budgetary responsibilities. It serves a five-year term and plays an important role in the passing of EU laws and in electing the European Commission President, vetting EU Commissioner-designates, and approving the European Commission’s collective political leadership.

European Parliament election outcome – the numbers

The 2024-2029 European Parliament will comprise 720 MEPs representing 27 Member States. MEPs are generally grouped with counterparts from other Member States in line with their political affiliations as follows (from left to right on the political spectrum):

• The Left in the European Parliament (GUE/NGL)
• The Greens/European Free Alliance (EFA)
• The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)
• Renew Europe
• The European People’s Party (EPP)
• European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)
• Identity and Democracy (ID)
• Independent/unaffiliated/affiliation not yet confirmed

The projected composition of the 2024-2029 European Parliament in order of representation is as follows¹:

European Parliament election outcome – the analysis

Political overview

As pre-election polls suggested, the political gravity in the European Parliament has shifted to the right, with the centre-right EPP and ECR groups gaining at the expense of the centrist Renew Europe group and the left-leaning Greens². The ECR group is now projected to be the third largest group in the European Parliament, overtaking Renew Europe.

Nevertheless, a centrist, pro-EU coalition of the EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe, with an anticipated 399 seats amounting to a workable majority (though this may change as more as yet unaffiliated MEPs confirm their political allegiances), is expected to remain the driving force behind the European Parliament's policymaking process.

As per the previous European Parliament, a voting majority can also be achieved between the EPP, S&D and either of the Greens (although slim) or the ECR, or supermajority arrived at where the EPP and S&D groups garner the support of more than one of those three groups.

However, with the European Parliament shifting to the right, it may now be possible – for the first time in the history of the European Parliament – that a slim, right-of-centre voting majority could be assembled between the EPP, ECR, ID, and right-leaning unaffiliated MEPs (assuming at least 35% of unaffiliated MEPs are right-leaning³), though significant obstacles to coordinating such cross-group consensus are likely given the various groups’ disparate political views.

So, while the political gravity in the European Parliament has indeed shifted to the right, the day-to-day impact on the European Parliament's policymaking process is expected to be relatively muted, with the most likely impact being a more business-friendly approach to the EU’s climate and sustainability agenda (e.g., a more pragmatic approach to climate transition under the European Green Deal).

Key Member States – a deeper dive⁴

Policy overview

The full impact of the European Parliament election on the EU’s policy agenda can only be truly assessed once the political layer of the European Commission has been formed (as approved by the European Parliament) and its ambitions set. Nevertheless, it is possible to draw some initial conclusions from the European Parliament’s notable shift to the right and the related demise of the Greens, as follows:

Climate and sustainability policy:

At the very least, a period of regulatory consolidation (also referred to a regulatory pause) is expected in the area of climate and sustainability policy, with a greater emphasis placed on thorough impact assessments where the existing policy framework is revised or, in time, extended.

However, the ambitions of the European Green Deal are expected to be reframed, likely with an industrial tilt, rather than overhauled. This could imply less political rhetoric on pure emissions reduction, though net-zero targets will remain in place, and more of a focus on security of energy supply and rebalancing industrial competitiveness vis-à-vis jurisdictions such as the US and China.

Defence and security policy:

Recent progress towards implementing an EU defence industrial strategy is expected to be accelerated with broader support within the European Parliament. Beyond greater coordination in European production and procurement, following the election, there is now more support in Brussels for developing common capabilities, such as an EU air defence system.

This proposal has already been championed by Polish Prime Minister and former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, whose influence has been further strengthened by strong European Parliament election results, and supported by President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who is currently frontrunner for re-election by MEPs later this year.

Economic competitiveness policy:

With economic growth in the EU severely lagging the US and China, policies which enhance the bloc’s global competitiveness will likely be prioritised in the 2024-2029 political cycle with the support of a more right-leaning European Parliament. The EU has already signalled its intention to reduce the administrative burden on domestic businesses relative to other jurisdictions, but right-leaning MEPs will hope to go further than the European Commission’s initial proposal to reduce business reporting requirements by 25%⁶, for example by rationalising, if not halting, the development of any new rules for small businesses⁷.

Migration policy:

The EU recently agreed a Pact on Migration and Asylum which aims to build a common EU system for managing migration. Despite having been enacted earlier this year, all of the right-leaning political groups in the European Parliament included in their manifestos further strengthening the EU’s common border, tackling illegal immigration, and overhauling European asylum law. It is therefore expected that the right of the European Parliament will closely scrutinise the effectiveness of the new Pact on Migration and Asylum and seek to implement changes where it deems the EU’s current approach falls short.