Trump vs. Harris: Election changes course

A presidential candidate convicted on 34 charges. An assassination attempt that left a former president bloodied but defiant. And a sitting president who pulled out of his reelection race after a disastrous debate performance. Any one of these events could have easily been the defining moment of an election. But in 2024, all that — and more — happened in the span of just 52 days.

Voters, party leaders, and down-ballot candidates have had to quickly shift gears from a Trump-Biden rematch to a Trump-Harris showdown. What are polls telling us about the new shape of the race? We highlight some early data from the key battleground states, but as we’ve so clearly seen over the past several weeks, things can change in the blink of an eye.

Elsewhere around the world:

• In France, polling predicted that the far-right would win the most seats in the snap parliamentary elections, but multiple political parties successfully banded together to block the advance of the far-right. In many constituencies, candidates from the left and the center made tactical decisions to withdraw between the first and the second round to allow the best-placed candidate to consolidate the vote against the far-right.
• The Labour Party won a landslide election victory in the UK, returning to office after 14 years in opposition. Sir Keir Starmer became the Prime Minister and Rachel Reeves became the first-ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer.
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term in office, but the results fell well short of expectations. The governing Bharatiya Janata Party lost its overall majority in the Indian Parliament and has formed a coalition with regional parties to continue in office. 

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