Outlooks 2021

Macroeconomic and asset allocation summary. Introduced by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist

The year 2020 saw the global economy plunged into economic turmoil. Unlike many past crises, this one was unique in that it was not economic in origin but started as a health crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic rapidly impacted the economy through lockdowns across the globe, which stymied economic activity and caused an unprecedented destruction of demand. Given these circumstances, we recognize that the shape of economic growth in the coming year is dependent on a wide variety of factors, including: infection rates, fiscal policy, monetary policy, public health policy including the severity – or “stringency” – of lockdowns, progress towards the development of therapies and a vaccine, and consumer and business confidence.

To address the breadth of possibilities that lie ahead in this environment, we have brought some of our experienced investment professionals and thought leaders together to create an outlook for 2021 – a base case, an upside scenario and a downside scenario. Our goal is to provide you with a range of possibilities, enabling you to select the scenario that aligns most closely with your expectations for the coming year. To provide a broader perspective we have addressed these scenarios on both a global basis and with respect to specific economies – the United States, the eurozone and China.

To read Kristina’s thoughts on the various scenarios, plus our assessment of the macro outlook and the investment implications, read the full report.