![2021: Growth and its implications for emerging market debt](/content/dam/invesco/emea/en/outlooks-2021/EM-FixedIncome_2496x1404px.jpg)
Fixed Income
2021: Growth and its implications for emerging market debt
What lies in store for EM debt markets in 2021?
The complex character and potential volatility of locally denominated debt in emerging markets calls for a different look at risk management and manager skill. Our approach aims to participate in the potential upside while reducing downside risks.
When it comes to investing in emerging market (EM) local debt, we seek to maximise returns from market exposure to potential attractive yield and income opportunities that go hand in hand with the relatively higher risks of this asset class.
At the same time, we believe manager skill can help minimise downside potential, even if it means missing out on certain trades that could result in above-market returns.
Locally denominated debt securities in emerging markets expose investors to a variety of risks, driven by factors, such as: foreign exchange, credit quality, interest rates, macroeconomic conditions, and regional politics.
This unique combination of risks, in our view, warrants special emphasis on seeking to limit the downside potential - one that requires manager skill - while aiming to wring value from market exposure to attractive yields and income.
We believe a portfolio’s tracking error is an inadequate measure of volatility because it gives equal treatment to the positive and negative differences between a portfolio and its benchmark.
Our proposed strategy for affording investors a smoother ride throughout emerging market cycles is to incorporate an element of capital loss mitigation during downturns:
We have designed a multi-part framework for riding out emerging market gyrations and seeking above-market annualised returns over the long haul:
Once we identify specific opportunities, we conduct bottom-up security selection, which aligns with our top-down risk budget.
In our view, it is the macro-driven risk budget that dictates the final shape of the portfolio and security-level decision making must fit into this. Not the other way around.
The risk/reward nature of locally denominated debt emerging markets can be highly idiosyncratic. This is the result of a complex interplay of multiple factors, including: foreign exchange, credit quality, interest rates, macroeconomic conditions, and regional politics.
We believe investing in them requires a more nuanced view of risk management and fund manager skill, with the end goal of providing a smoother investment experience in potentially volatile emerging markets.
The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be as a result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Debt instruments are exposed to credit risk which is the ability of the borrower to repay the interest and capital on the redemption date.
Changes in interest rates will result in fluctuations in the value of the strategy.
The strategy uses derivatives (complex instruments) for investment purposes, which may result in the strategy being significantly leveraged and may result in large fluctuations in the value of the strategy.
As a large portion of the strategy is invested in less developed countries, you should be prepared to accept significantly large fluctuations in the value of the strategy.
The strategy may invest in certain securities listed in China which can involve significant regulatory constraints that may affect the liquidity and/or the investment performance of the strategy.
Investments in debt instruments which are of lower credit quality may result in large fluctuations in the value of the strategy.
The strategy may invest in distressed securities which carry a significant risk of capital loss.
All data is as at 31 January 2021 unless otherwise stated.
This is marketing material and not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication.
Where individuals or the business have expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice.
Further information on our products is available using the contact details shown.