Insight

Insurance Insights Q2 2023: Insurance asset allocation using multi-alternative strategies

Q2 2023: Insurance asset allocation using multi-alternative strategies

Regular review of Strategic Asset Allocations (SAA)

In our past newsletters and in our engagements with insurers, we often stress the importance of constantly reviewing Strategic Asset Allocations (SAA) in view of ever-changing market conditions, capital markets, as well as liability and product profiles. It remains important to assess whether the SAA set some time ago is still valid and whether it is able to deliver on expectations – including from an asset liability management (ALM) perspective – especially relevant as several jurisdictions already have or are introducing updated solvency regimes.

Key inputs into this process are, of course, capital market assumptions. At Invesco, we generate a wide set of such assumptions (CMAs) which are updated on a quarterly basis and incorporate the latest market developments. As alluded to, other than just expected return/yield considerations, other aspects of the portfolio, including capital considerations of asset classes and the overall asset-liability matching profile, need to be considered. We usually illustrate this through the charts below – these have been updated over the prior quarter.1  Figure 1 assesses the attractiveness of asset classes in terms of current conditions, and Figure 2 re-formats this based on the capital efficiency (expected return-to-standalone capital charge). As before, combining these two elements can help narrow down the initial list of asset types to consider.

Trading range and return on capital for various asset classes
Trading range and return on capital for various asset classes

Source Invesco as of 31 March 2023; Barra duration weighted yield to maturity; Return on Capital = Expected Return / (Solvency Ratio * SCR) (for illustration purposes); Note: For fixed income assets, Barra's duration weighted yield to maturity is used as expected return. For other assets, Invesco CMAs are used where available. CMAs are as of 2022-06-30. Otherwise manual inputs from Invesco Solutions are used. All the hedging of fixed income assets is based upon swap curves from Barra and basis curves from Bloomberg; otherwise based upon Bloomberg Generic Govt 10Y Yield. Interest rate risk is excluded from SCR charges. Assets with zero SCR charges are not shown in the graph.

Please note that for purposes of this illustration, we have used the Solvency II Solvency Capital Required (SCR) standard formula for relevant risk charges as a proxy for more general risk-based capital (RBC) regimes; this can obviously be tailored to other RBC regimes across the region. While the specific charges may differ based on jurisdictions, we feel the trend or direction of risk charge changes based on allocations would still be meaningful and of relevance. It remains important to continually assess portfolios across several dimensions to ensure that the premise remains valid and achievable.

Updating Strategic Asset Allocations – Incorporating new asset classes

We have shown earlier how the introduction of some representative alternative asset classes (such as private equity, real estate) can help improve the efficiency of insurance portfolios.

To recap, let’s see what happens to a hypothetical portfolio if we were to consider adding private equity and core real estate (as examples of alternative asset classes) - how could we assess the impact?

 

Note: Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury Total Return (LUTLTRUU IDX), ICE BofA Asian Dollar Investment Grade Index (ADIG IDX), US Corporate Total Return Value Unhedged USD (LUCRTRUU IDX), EM USD Aggregate USD Unhedged (EMUSTRUU IDX), Global High Yield Total Return (LG30TRUU IDX). MSCI Daily TR Gross World Local (GDDLWI IDX), MSCI Daily TR Gross AC Asia Pacific Ex Japan Local (GDLECAPF IDX). Invesco Core Real Estate-USA LLC Fund (IVZ_RE_US_CORE), Invesco Private Equity US Large Leveraged buyout fund (IVZ_PE_US_LBO); these are internal Invesco-modeled assets. Strategies/indices/proxies indicated here may not be directly investable. For illustrative purposes only. An investment cannot be made in an index.

Using our in-house portfolio management decision support system – called Invesco Vision2– we are able to compare different asset allocations to see which ones may be more efficient than others – and also to look for ways in which we may be able to enhance existing portfolios.  

The charts below (Figure 3 and 4) compare the risk-return profiles of the two portfolios above – to see what impact, if any, the addition of such alternative asset classes has - the aim is to assess how the risk-return profile changes as a result of adding new asset classes.

Figures 3 and 4 - A comparison of the two asset allocations
Figures 3 and 4 - A comparison of the two asset allocations

Figure 3 (left) shows the portfolio characteristics on an economic basis and Figure 4 (right) shows the characteristics on a Solvency II SCR basis. The blue line represents the frontier without private equity/real estate and the green line represents the frontier including private equity/real estate (while the blue and green single points represent the respective portfolio asset allocations).

We can see that by selectively adding a generic private equity/real estate allocations, we can improve the overall risk-return profile of the portfolios – the green frontier is higher (than the blue) and the portfolio with private equity and real estate represented by the green single point shows a move upwards and appears to offer a better profile (obviously, the allocation change is fairly small and so the corresponding portfolio change would be correspondingly small). This is a simple example of how selection of specific asset classes can help enhance portfolios. 

The effect of adding diversified alternatives (multi-alternatives) exposure to a portfolio

Our next step is to assess whether if we diversify our alternatives exposure, we can enhance the efficiency. That is, instead of allocations to single strategy private equity and real estate, what if we were to construct a sub-portfolio of different alternatives strategies – covering different types of private equity, real estate, and some private credit strategies. We believe such a diversified exposure to “multi-alternatives” has the potential to offer enhanced and more resilient portfolios. 

In the revised portfolio below, we have replaced the earlier private equity and real estate exposures with a multi-alternatives growth strategy, and we have also taken the opportunity to slightly reduce global high yield debt exposure and allocated this to a multi-alternatives income strategy.

Again, we have the ability visually or graphically to see what impact such an updated allocation may have on our portfolio from a risk-return perspective.

Note: Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury Total Return (LUTLTRUU IDX), ICE BofA Asian Dollar Investment Grade Index (ADIG IDX), US Corporate Total Return Value Unhedged USD (LUCRTRUU IDX), EM USD Aggregate USD Unhedged (EMUSTRUU IDX), Global High Yield Total Return (LG30TRUU IDX). MSCI Daily TR Gross World Local (GDDLWI IDX), MSCI Daily TR Gross AC Asia Pacific Ex Japan Local (GDLECAPF IDX). Invesco Core Real Estate-USA LLC Fund (IVZ_RE_US_CORE), Invesco Private Equity US Large Leveraged buyout fund (IVZ_PE_US_LBO); these are internal Invesco-modeled assets. Diversified Multi-Alts Growth is an internal Invesco-modeled asset comprising the following representative strategies/indices as proxies: Private Credit US Distressed, Private Equity US Early Ventures, Private Equity US Growth, Private Equity US Large Buyout, Private Equity Middle Market, Real Estate Opportunistic, Real Estate Value-Add; Diversified Multi-Alts Income is an internal Invesco-modeled asset comprising the following representative strategies/indices as proxies: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index (CSLLLTOT IDX), Alternative Credit, Private Credit US Infrastructure High Yield, Private Credit US Mezzanine Corporate (Middle-Market), Private Credit US Mezzanine Real Estate, Private Credit US Senior Corporate Unlevered. Strategies/indices/proxies indicated here may not be directly investable. For illustrative purposes only. An investment cannot be made in an index

In this updated portfolio above, we have replaced our single private equity and real estate exposures (and some of the global high yield debt exposure) with allocations to several different strategies - ranging from private equity buyout, growth, venture capital, to opportunistic and value-added real estate exposure, as well as private credit.

The allocations here are meant to be for illustrative purposes only. Bespoke multi-alternatives portfolios can be constructed by taking into consideration desired risk-reward profiles with correspondingly appropriate allocations – these are highly customizable (dependent on certain minimum allocation amounts).

The charts below (Figure 5 and 6) compare the risk-return profiles of the two portfolios above – to see what impact the addition of a diversified multi-alternatives exposure has - the aim is to assess how the risk-return profile changes as a result of adding a diversified range of asset classes.

Figures 5 and 6 - A comparison of the two asset allocations
Figures 5 and 6 - A comparison of the two asset allocations

Source: Invesco analysis, 31 March 2023. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee the expected return can be achieved.

Figure 5 (left) shows the portfolio characteristics on an economic basis and Figure 6 (right) shows the characteristics on a Solvency II SCR basis. The green line represents the frontier with the single private equity and real estate strategies while the purple line represents the frontier with the diversified multi-alternatives strategies (the green and purple single points represent the respective portfolio asset allocations).

We observe that by incorporating a diversified multi-alternatives exposure within our portfolio, we have been able to further enhance the efficiency of the overall portfolio – by moving our portfolio slightly up and to the left. 

The chart below magnifies the comparison of a single private equity strategy and emerging market debt with the diversified multi-alternatives strategy to illustrate the potential enhanced profile.

Figure 7 - Illustrating the potential benefit of a multi-alternatives strategy
Figure 7 - Illustrating the potential benefit of a multi-alternatives strategy

Source: Invesco analysis, 31 March 2023. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee the expected return can be achieved.

Here (Figure 7) we can more clearly see the enhanced profile of the diversified multi-alternatives strategies (Growth and Income) compared to the asset classes they are replacing (on a Solvency II SCR basis). This assessment takes into consideration aspects of expected returns and standard solvency risk charges for the indicated asset classes.

We believe this is an example of the types of analyses that are very appropriate and, indeed, should be part of any standard operating procedure in managing insurance portfolios.

Potential operating model

Operationalizing any such program in an effective manner is almost equally important for insurers - implementing such a program can be challenging and complex.

Source: Invesco. For illustrative purposes only.

Our belief is that optimal outcomes of any such program depend on close interaction between investors and asset managers and the approach should be to deliver a portfolio over time that fully meets investors’ requirements – acting as an extension of staff with a focus on knowledge sharing.

Source: Invesco. For illustrative purposes only.

Finally, we feel it remains vital to maintain oversight over several activities associated with this asset class and investors can look at an effective combination of external and internal monitoring in order to achieve the optimal process.

The pragmatic process outlined we feel can meet these requirements – this is meant to be a very collaborative approach and can lead to more robust outcomes for insurers’ portfolios.

Key takeaways

We hope the approach and examples above of enhancing insurance portfolios has been helpful. We have built upon our earlier higher-level analysis and supplemented it here by delving more deeply into specific asset classes – the ultimate aim always being to enhance the risk-return profile and make portfolios more efficient. 

We feel alternatives (illiquids/private market assets) are still quite relevant as a satellite component within such portfolio constructs – from both efficiency and diversification perspectives - and lend themselves well to typical life insurers’ portfolios. As we have highlighted earlier, it remains vital to assess the specific types of sub-asset classes, understand the sources of return and risk, including operational, accounting, tax considerations, and, finally, be able to manage and/or have sufficient oversight of such programs.

As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us – your thoughts on such topics are always much appreciated.

FOOTNOTES

  • 1

    Hypothetical Simulated Performance

    Performance shown is simulated. The simulation presented here was created to consider possible results of a strategy not previously managed by Invesco for any client. Simulated performance is hypothetical. It does not reflect trading in actual accounts and is provided for informational purposes only to illustrate these strategies during specific periods. There is no guarantee the simulated results will be realized in the future.

    When available, underlying holdings are used to calculate performance. If historical underlying holdings returns are not available, a blend of underlying holding returns and underlying benchmark returns are used, with indexes being adjusted for expenses.

    Actual investment performance will differ due to transaction and other costs and may be materially lower or higher than that of the hypothetical portfolios. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance. These hypothetical results include reinvestment of dividends and other earnings.

    Invesco cannot assure the simulated performance results shown for these strategies would be similar to the firm’s experience had it actually been managing portfolios using these strategies. In addition, the results actual investors might have achieved would vary because of differences in the timing and amounts of their investments. Returns shown for this simulation would be lower when reduced by the advisory fees and any other expenses incurred in the management of an investment advisory account. For example, an account with an assumed growth rate of 10% would realize a net of fees annualized return of 8.91% after three years, assuming a 1% management fee.

    Simulated performance results have certain limitations. Such results do not represent the impact of material economic and market factors might have on an investment advisor's decision-making process if the advisor were actually managing client money. Simulated performance also differs from actual performance because it is achieved through retroactive application of a model investment methodology and may be designed with the benefit of hindsight.

  • 2

    Invesco Vision

    Invesco Vision is a decision support system that combines analytical and diagnostic capabilities to foster better portfolio management decision-making. Invesco Vision incorporates CMAs, proprietary risk forecasts, and robust optimization techniques to help guide our portfolio construction and rebalancing processes.  By helping investors and researchers better understand portfolio risks and trade-offs, it helps to identify potential solutions best aligned with their specific preferences and objectives.

    The Invesco Vision tool can be used in practice to develop solutions across a range of challenges encountered in the marketplace. The analysis output and insights shown in the document does not take into account any individual investor’s investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. The insights are not intended as a recommendation to invest in a specific asset class or strategy, or as a promise of future performance. For additional information on our methodology, please refer to our CMA and Invesco Vision papers.