Global Fixed Income Strategy - November–December 2024
Macro conclusions from the November IFI Summit
Twice a year, investors from across the Invesco Fixed Income platform gather at the IFI Global Investors’ Summit to discuss and debate their views on global macroeconomic trends. Macro themes play an important role in IFI’s investment process and our framework of “macro factors”, focused on growth, inflation and policy, helps us project macro trends and interpret market movements. At our November 19 – 20 Summit, a panel of investors provided their views on global macro developments. Below we share their main conclusions.
US
Key Summit takeaways
• Economic outlook for 2025: Economic momentum remains strong heading into 2025, but we anticipate potential volatility and uncertainty due to policy changes under the new Trump administration. Our outlook considers two scenarios: a pragmatic approach by the administration, leading to a continued soft landing, or an aggressive stance that could result in trade wars and large-scale deportations, significantly affecting labor market dynamics.
• Short-term growth: In the short-term, we expect continued strong US GDP growth, after averaging close to 3% since 2023. Easing financial conditions, the declining tail risk of a hard landing, the resolution of election uncertainty and less regulation under the new administration should drive dynamism.
