Insight

Global Fixed Income Strategy - August 2023

Global Fixed Income Strategy - August 2023
alt text

China at a crossroads: On the verge of a downward spiral or a more forceful policy response?

After abruptly ending its zero-COVID policy, China bounced back strongly in the first quarter. Economic forecasters promptly upgraded their growth forecasts beyond the government’s moderate 5% target. Now, that positive sentiment has been replaced with doom and gloom. One weak data point after another has highlighted slowing domestic demand, a weakening currency, deflation and portfolio outflows. Reports of companies falling behind on debt payments have also weighed on sentiment. Add to this the weak policy response so far to stabilize the economy, and investors are questioning whether the government’s growth target is in danger, and what would a sharp slowdown in China mean for the global economy and markets?